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Friday, December 26, 2014

OIL bottomed?

With OIL so weak, last week seems to have the heaviest Volume and a bounce back, with Saudi's tone changed. I believe last week is the bottom at least short term for USO. I started the position around here and the stop out would be the low of last week. I do expect the selling into the year end just because fund mgr do not want to list this in the statement. After it, most will believe USO Will be higher by the end of 2015. Is it possible for it to move into the 20s or 30s.. without the Fed not fear the eventual drop in the general market?

Thursday, December 25, 2014

China's continue support on the market

Since the last recent support from China, this should be seen as a multi stage support to as least, not allowing the economy to come near a hard landing. Each successive support will only push up the stock market and thus, LFC, BABA, BIDU, WUBA, etc should be on your list to accumulate. The Chinese New Year is as important as the Thanksgivin and Xmas holidays in the West. Holding onto these China plays til before the Lunar New Year should be wise. Buy with caution, the wind is definitely blowing that way

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Happy Holidays

Today is the Quiet day as expected. It looks  as if BABA can predict China's market weankess. However, I continue to believe BABA should shine next year as China will continue to prop up the market. If something does happen to Europe or Russia. I believe China should attract the most investment if China intend to continue its slow soft landing with supportive measures along the way.

Happy Holiday to All. May Putin be great enough not to turn off energy export to Europe during this holiday!

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

back from break

BABA looks weak for preholiday and china somehow isn't as strong. that indeed surprises me. however, FB and AAPL should be the staples and I would still bet on BABA long term as the choice for Mutual Fund to get the right exposures to China. 

Tomorrow is the Eve's... same old. expect earlier profit taking and thats it. volume will really die very soon then for the rest of the year... i expect the losers in the year to lose more ground follow by lots of speculative bettings on the half dead stocks ...

example

I am expecting Coal and Oil tanker stocks soon to be in the spot light as Japan is stockpiling Oil in tankers and Accumulating Coal Interest since they are no longer a nuclear powered country. What other means do they have? it comes to mind of BTU, ACI, ANR, TNK, etc...

just some thoughts thinking ahead


Monday, December 22, 2014

Whats coming this Xmas Eve?

Halloween, we had the Yen Massacre. Thanksgiving, we had the Oil Massacre. Whats in stock for this Christmas? something for Gold may be?

the early weakness has arrived. people have to sell the losers and take a little profit. then its all for the window dressing needs. comes January, we have another cook job report and First of the year investment from people. Generally, the 1st month may have a dip then all those IRA and 401K will dive in thinking nothing will ever go wrong with Yellen is there.


Sunday, December 21, 2014

View into Next Week

Next Week, its only naturally for some selling earlier then volume fades, VIX spikes down, money manager try to get rid of bad positions to offset some gains before they take more gains in January. So I expect some early weakness then full blown Fed Mandated mini Rally, if there are still some shorts to squeeze. Going long names like MSFT, BABA, AAPL, IBB, SPY still would make sense til 2nd week of January before some profit taking occurs.

I am personally LONG - BABA, VIP and a little USO ( accumulating)

With OIL, their intention is obvious and if their work fail them, Saudi will be doomed as well. Change of tone from the Saudi should say when the oil bottoms. This is a Obama mandated fall in USO since QE is stopped. Some Idiots truly believe lower OIL will be better off for consumers.

I will take any weakness in AAPL, BABA or MSFT to get some calls for mid week Jan. The Fed has done so much, they wont let the last week or two spoil their printing work. they will print some fireworks into the end.  There is an Economic war going on around the world. Gold Back RMB will soon be revealed to take on the USD. May the Russia sell their GOLD to China in order to upset the current Central Bank induced happy days for the USA? and Russia peg their currency to RMB? that surely will surprise lots of so call economists.

Friday, December 19, 2014

BABA is a black sheep in disguise? What is it?

Here at the Close, on a weekly Chart... I am expecting next 2 weeks with lots of upside on this name til Mid January. will start accumulate a few more Calls on this.



Looking at a 4 hr chart on BABA, near the end of the year, its time for window dressing and BABA has been the Hottest China Stock in 2014. Will Fund Managers add BABA to show they did participate?

With Volume decreasing as the holiday nears, the profit taking seem to be schedule for January.
This is setting up to be quite interesting. SSEC has been on fire. This is the Biggest and Hottest and the most competitive company in China. Will it not the be biggest winner soon?

I am betting a few coins on BABA for the holidays.



Coal Stocks Bottoming in 2015

BTU is one of the largest in North America. Just like before the Nat Gas bottom when it broke $2 CU. BTU is bottom price is 4 to 4.50. Breaching that may means it will not be able to pay its debt. however, from a technical standpoint and fundamental standpoint. We still need lots of Coal to produce power. Global Warming or not, we still have to live with power from coal. With the Republican back in Senate and the House. Will they once again help the Clean Coal Initiative?

Look at this multi-chart. I believe BTU near 5 would be a significant value long term bet. One that may make a double or even a triple at a depressed price.
$4.50 to $5.00 is the key. I will start accumulate once it breaks 5


Thursday, December 18, 2014

VIP retrace down and Taking Another Stab

With RSX and TRF stabilizing, VIP's price retrace looks attractive. I have started another small position in it. Beware! Halloween and Thanksgiving day had both been trigger to significant event and this Xmas Eve may also be a possibility going into the year end. I believe the powers that be may help the market til the 25.  Long the USA Domestic stocks, the blue chips that is unaffect by the OIL crash, may be good defensive plays for the end of year window dressing. I.E. GE is a blue chip but it has quite a bit of OIL related business. I would avoid that.

Profit Taking on MBT, VIP ... may add on RSX

One day with over 20% upside, I took my profit on MBT and VIP. Although historical retracement may push it even higher. I would wait for some smoke to clear before dipping again into these.

China's stocks ADR are the most attractive since China has embarked on supporting their market til at least the Lunar New Year.

As the year end window dressing comes, AAPL, MSFT,  BABA, BIDU, FB, and perhaps YHOO should be on your list to add til the 2nd week of January before the tax selling begins.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Dare to Invest in Russia?

Looking this Bottoming Tail with Huge Volume in RSX
Unless there is a bigger Volume to complete Wipe Out this Bottoming Tail

This represents 2 things in Play... Big Retracements in Russia ADR .... 
MBT, VIP, QIWI, RSX of course

MBT is offering a huge dividend. Long Term Investing with a big stomach should do okay. Remember Ford at $1 or LVS @ $1

those who buy just 1000 sh is having a great time!!! I personally start a small position in MBT.  RSX will be a good buy if it retraces 50% from this bottoming tail. 

What would happen if Putin use Gold to back the Ruble? then China does it too? It will put Gold back in the game with the Central Bankers. 

With a Bottoming Tail in RSX, USO looks poise for a rebound as well. nonetheless, Saudi and Obama somewhat join strikes a few of their foes by killing the Oil Prices.  Holiday is here. Do they want more Panic in the market? perhaps just retrace before another waterfall? Would be Easy if Putin try invading toward the Mid East in favor of maintain peace? then USO would be easier bounce. Bounce can preceed another fall. This game is starting to look interesting.